Tough conversations

Tough conversations — even the thought of them can make my heart race. I loathe them. They leave me jittery, shaky, and emotionally overwhelmed.

Recently, I found myself in a situation where I needed to confront someone. There was no major conflict or alarming issue, just subtle, uncomfortable moments — unspoken tension beneath polite exchanges. My usual approach would have been to let it slide, ignore the discomfort, and move on. I even tried convincing myself that addressing it wasn’t necessary. But this time, something shifted. Instead of brushing it under the rug, I chose to speak up.

The conversation didn’t start smoothly. My hands trembled, and my voice revealed my nerves. I’m sure the other person noticed. But as we talked, the tension eased, and the discussion became more grounded. I found the courage to express my feelings and clarify my needs. It wasn’t about winning or losing — tough conversations rarely are. They’re about fostering understanding, setting boundaries, and improving relationships.

For most of my life, I avoided confrontation, rationalizing that staying silent was easier. But lately, I’ve been challenging that instinct. By leaning into these difficult moments, I’m learning to articulate my expectations with honesty and courage. The results have been transformative — greater clarity, mutual understanding, and a stronger foundation for the future.

I have to credit my wife for encouraging me to take this step. Her support gave me the confidence to push through discomfort and make my expectations clear. Tough conversations may never feel easy, but they’re worth it. Moving forward, I’m embracing the discomfort, knowing that growth comes from facing these moments with an open mind and heart.

Writing and me

I have a deep passion for writing and actively explore various styles, ranging from creative and analytical to technical forms. Whether it’s crafting opinions and analyses on significant events or preparing project and design documents, I seize every opportunity to write whenever I can carve out a few minutes. This habit keeps me engaged, reflective, and intentional about the content I consume.

When I first began writing a couple of decades ago, I believed I could articulate my thoughts exactly as I imagined them. It didn’t take long to realize how much I had underestimated the complexity of translating thought into words.

As a high school student, I was introduced to some of the most beautiful poetry by great poets, with John Keats leaving the strongest impression on me. My first encounter with Keats was during my junior year, when we studied La Belle Dame sans Merci as part of our curriculum. I distinctly remember the summer mornings when my English teacher recited and explained the poem, unraveling its language and beauty. At the time, my language skills were far from polished, and I struggled to fully grasp the nuances of Keats’ words. Yet, I fell in love with his work, captivated by the depth and elegance of his poetry.

Accessing books wasn’t easy back then. Public libraries weren’t available, and most of my time was consumed by mastering high school math, physics, and chemistry. Even so, I found a poetic rhythm in solving complex math problems; they felt, in their own way, as enchanting as the verses of a poem.

A couple of years after graduating high school with excellent grades and acing the entrance exam, I embarked on a bachelor’s degree in engineering. During my first couple of years, though I devoted some attention to my studies, I often found myself lost in my thoughts. One major factor that shaped this state of mind was gaining access to a quality library.

My dad had arranged for a membership at the British Library, conveniently located on my route home from university. Some days, I would stop there, drawn to the modest section dedicated to poetry. It was during those visits that I discovered the works of several great poets, and my perspective on the world began to shift. The intricate beauty of language—how words could be woven together to create something imaginary yet deeply expressive—felt like pure magic to me. Poetry became my new math, a subject of endless fascination and exploration.

Oblivious to the world around me, I lost myself in a utopian dream, spending countless hours and days immersed in that imaginary realm. In reality, I lived like a robot, going through the motions, but in my mind’s universe, I was truly thriving. I lost all sense of time, often forgetting the hour or even the day, as I devoted myself to the solace of poetry.

After two years of being completely out of sync with my real world, I’ve come to realize the impact it has had on my future prospects. I always took pride in my ability to grasp ideas or concepts quickly—often on the first read or explanation. Such was my focus. Yet, during those two years, I failed to exercise that strength. I don’t regret the experience itself; I only regret my inability to balance it with the demands of my regular life. Following that realization, I discovered my love for writing code, particularly in the C programming language. I developed a deep fascination for automata theory and language compilers, both of which captivated me with their logic and elegance.

After graduating from the university, I was fortunate to join the research team at TCS, where I took on a pivotal role in maintaining a business language translation system that could generate error-free C++ code from structured language inputs. It was an incredibly rewarding experience that combined my passion for programming with the challenge of solving complex problems.

Drawn by the highly lucrative opportunities in the financial services industry, I transitioned from my fulfilling and intellectually rewarding role at TCS into banking, where I built a progressive career. My work primarily involved crafting comprehensive memos that detailed business, market, and financial analyses, along with well-reasoned justifications for lending or investment decisions.

Life came full circle when I transitioned back into technology, returning to writing code in C++ and eventually advancing to creating technical documents to present ideas for complex projects. This shift reignited my passion for programming and problem-solving while allowing me to combine technical expertise with clear communication.

Throughout my career, I’ve been fortunate to explore diverse avenues for expressing my thoughts and ideas through writing. Whether as an amateur poet capturing emotions, a programmer crafting efficient solutions in C/C++, or a professional drafting detailed memos to support critical financial decisions, writing has been a constant thread—one that has remained both a deeply fulfilling and integral part of my journey.

S&P 500 Vs VIX

S&P 500's Daily Returns Vs Daily VIX Change.

The daily changes have been plotted by sorting the data from the highest daily increase in VIX to highest daily fall. This plot clearly conveys a high negative correlation between the daily movements of these 2 indices -- as the Fear index (VIX) increases, the S&P 500 index falls.

 

Using VIX to predict S&P Volatility

By definition, VIX is an indication of expected market volatility in the next 30 days. Plotting standard deviation of the 30-day forward S&P standard deviation (Y) against VIX (X) on that day, indicates a decently correlated graph. Correlations between these were found to be 72%. VIX can't explain about a quarter of the volatility we observe in S&P over the next 30-days.

While VIX only indicates expected volatility and doesn't claim to predict S&P returns, I still went ahead and tried to plot 30-day forward S&P returns (Y) against VIX (X). As expected, I found that VIX can only explain about 5.8% of the 30-day forward returns of S&P. The plot indicates a poor correlation.

Analysis was based on daily closing values of VIX and S&P indices from 05-2004 to 11-2024.

Five Key Issues for the New Term of President-Elect Donald Trump

The achievements of Mr. Donald Trump, former President and now President-Elect of the United States, stand unparalleled in recent history. His return to power following a significant defeat in the previous election underscores his enduring ability to garner support across a broad spectrum of the American populace—cutting across lines of race, gender, political affiliations, and other divisions.

Both his popular vote and electoral college victories reflect a mandate that few can dispute. With such a strong endorsement, one can hope that his administration will focus on enacting transformative policies, revitalizing lawmaking, and restoring the country’s growth trajectory. In my opinion, there are five key areas that demand urgent attention: healthcare, immigration, taxation, innovation, and international trade.

1. Healthcare Reform

The U.S. healthcare system, while advanced, is deeply flawed. Despite its capability to save lives, it is one of the most inefficient systems globally, plagued by excessive bureaucracy, waste, and misuse of grants. These grants, intended to foster innovation, often fail to translate into meaningful healthcare outcomes for the taxpayers who fund them. The U.S. has historically been a leader in medical innovation, driven by science and rigorous decision-making. However, placing individuals who disregard scientific principles at the helm of healthcare only exacerbates inefficiency and disorder. Reforms must prioritize efficiency, accountability, and the promotion of tangible benefits for American citizens.

2. Immigration Policy

Immigration remains a broken facet of U.S. policy, repeatedly altered by political motives rather than comprehensive strategy. Legal immigration, which contributes to the economy and supports the tax base, should never be deprioritized in favor of leniency toward illegal immigration, which burdens public resources. Such policies contradict the foundational American principle of meritocracy. President Trump’s unconventional approach to governance uniquely positions him to address these challenges decisively and craft a fair, effective immigration system that aligns with national interests.

3. Taxation and Fiscal Responsibility

The inefficiencies in various government agencies and departments result in a significant waste of taxpayers’ money. Misallocated grants and unwarranted subsidies not only drain public funds but also encourage a culture of dependency and inefficiency. Addressing these issues would allow for a reduction in the tax burden on citizens and businesses, while simultaneously reducing national debt. A leaner, more efficient system can redirect resources toward productive uses and ensure that taxpayer contributions support meaningful and sustainable initiatives.

4. Promoting Innovation

Declining research and development (R&D) incentives since 2017 have dampened U.S. competitiveness in innovation. By reinstating robust incentives for R&D, the administration can reverse this trend and restore America’s position as a global leader in technological and scientific breakthroughs. This requires strategic policy adjustments to balance taxation and foster an environment where innovation can thrive without excessive bureaucratic hurdles.

5. International Trade Policy

President Trump’s firm stance on international trade has been a polarizing issue, but some of his measures are necessary to protect national interests. While outsourcing to low-cost countries may reduce consumer prices, it often comes at the cost of domestic employment opportunities. For outsourcing to benefit the economy, it must be accompanied by the creation of equivalent high-value jobs and accessible skill-transition pathways for displaced workers. Additionally, anti-dumping tariffs should be implemented judiciously to ensure fair trade practices without disproportionately harming domestic industries or consumers.

A Call for Strategic Leadership

With this new mandate, it is crucial for President-Elect Donald Trump to assemble a team of capable bureaucrats and advisors to address these pressing issues effectively. By focusing on these five areas, his administration can steer the country back toward a path of meritocracy, efficiency, and sustainable growth.

The next term offers an opportunity to enact policies that will not only address immediate challenges but also lay the foundation for a prosperous future.

For Richer Experiences, Never Quit!

I vaguely recollect the feeling or the emotional state we were in on that day. However, I could recollect a few key things effortlessly. It was more than 8 years back. We had yet another hectic week at IIM-K. We all had rushed to complete project reports, which took a few night outs to complete. We were planning for the last few classroom sessions, which invariably required making a presentation by our team. In most of the cases, I was to present the case in the last session of the class. For those unaware, all the teams (that had not already presented in the previous sessions) had to be ready with the presentations. Therefore, my team had to prepare presentation for all the cases and get to present the last case to the class. My professors either felt that I was the most capable so gave me the last presentation, which typically involves most of the concepts covers in the entire subject, or felt that I am the weakest and wanted me to prepare the presentation for all the topics! I would love to think it was the former. Further, we had to prepare ourselves for the final exams. That trimester, there was a “wow-feeling” and a “phew-feeling”, because, we had (based on our electives) a few days with multiple exams and a gap of 3 days with no exams in between.

That being our last trimester, I was in no mood to prepare for my exams. Yes, that was the time by when I already had a job offer and was complacent. Luckily, I was able to find a few more of my sort in the A-Top (the top floor of the A hostel). We had a crazy idea of planning one last trek before we left the school. A couple of my friends (Alok and Debu) and I planned for a simple trek – we did not want to be too adventurous in between our exams. While it was a very simple one, it was a very good place to go. Hence, we decided to bike to the base camp early morning, finish the trek in 4 hours and come back by late afternoon. We carried enough stuff to last until the lunch.

Everything was as planned until we reached the spot and we started. After about a few 100 m into the trek, we saw a watchtower nearby and went there. After enjoying the awesome view, we went back to the trek. It is from here that we got lost! We realized that after about 500 m and we thought it would connect to the right path and continued for another 1,000 m. Then we thought a bit and decided that we will not go back, even if we have to climb the mountain, we did not have any gear though! We thought we have come for an experience so it does not matter if we do the trek or not, as long as we have the experience. We went forward until we reached the foot of a hillock. We decide to go up that hillock. We used the mountain grass that grew on the hill as support and climbed our way through. It was really a very tough trek! Mountain grass blades are very sharp; we had many cuts on the palms and entire forearms. However, our focus was on surmounting the hillock! The mountain grass generally has very strong roots; that helped us!

After about an hour of such ordeal, we finally could see the normal path. Nevertheless, we could not understand how our route would connect to it. We did not lose hope! We just went further, but this time, sideways, as there was no more grass upwards, it was only a rock. Luckily, after about another 30 minutes of trek, we could reach the way that connected to the correct path. We finally concluded the trek; of course, we took about two extra hours. Did that really matter? NO! It actually was the best trek we ever had. Apart from adding another one to our list of conquered treks, we experienced a tougher trek – climbing almost 75 degrees incline, we could see the base of the hillock when finding the next place to keep our feet. Among the three of us, I rate myself the weakest who would have quit if not for Debu and Alok pushing me.

This experience taught me that if we are determined, we could surmount all the difficulties and achieve our goals. Being at it is all that really matters! In our daily life, we cannot avoid problems nor can we go back to a time from when it would have been easier to tackle. All that matters in such situation is being at it and not quitting. I always tell myself, quitting is the easiest thing and if we quit we would miss many good experiences that would shape our mental being and make us a stronger individual.

I am, because of that experience and not quitting, a stronger person and have been able to face many adversities in both my personal and professional front. I thank my friends who shared the same crazy feeling of doing the trek between the exams, pushing me and supporting me during that experience.

Taking charge of charging into your own hands

With the technology moving so fast, especially getting close to the nanotechnology, I was wondering about 3 years back. Incidentally, I had a discussion with one of my friends as well on this. While I cannot recollect exactly who now, because I generally am freelance on my discussions about innovation/ technology with my friends and colleagues, but I am sure it was a very typical discussion. What is typical here? Yes! I was just about to address that. After most of my discussions on that front, I leave with a feeling that my interlocutor thinks I am stupid. Of course, as one great person said all new ideas were thought to be stupid initially. But, here we are, already challenging our imagination!

Ok! I agree, it is time I got to the point now. It was about charging the mobile phone wirelessly. This is now a reality. Samsung has shown it to the world in its new release. Of course this was not quite the way I imagined it should be. I wanted it to take the charge without it being placed physically on a particular object. Yes! I imagined it to be purely the way we now have the wireless connectivity now. I know that could be a bit too much. But yes there is energy everywhere, the quantum and the intensity varies. But, why can’t we harness this energy to charge our phones? In that direction, I also felt, we can try another way. When we hold the mobile in our hands, why can’t it draw the energy from our body to charge itself, weird? No way! We are a great source of energy ourselves. We have enough static energy on us to burn out a microprocessor or a PCB (Printed Circuit Board). We are also having enough electricity running in our body! You know, I think most of you would know, our heart works with electricity.

So, we know what we should expect in our next wave of technology innovation for the mobile phones. No need to charge our mobile any more, just holding it in our palms should do it! Let us see, who will get there, Apple or Samsung!

Analysis of Unio Budget - 2015

I am a bit late this. However, I thought I should not miss writing it. While most of the people would have done some internet searching to know how the Union Budget for the coming year is going to affect them. So, I will restrict my views to the points I highlighted on my previous entry that was posted on the night before the “Union Budget”. I had covered some broad themes that the Budget should look at from the long-term perspective. Let us know evaluate what the government has announced on those aspects.

GST: As I mentioned, government couldn’t have announced implementation of this immediately as the state governments weren’t taken on board. However, the government has clearly announced its plan to start implementation from the next year (2016-17) onwards, which I believe is the right thing. This will help rationalize the country’s tax structure and bring in more predictability to any investor. It will also ensure that there is greater accuracy in tax collection. However, as the devil resides in the details, knowing the implementation details would help us understand exact level of benefits that we can expect from this. The first problem is the entire structure is similar to the existing. Proposed way of implementing is not going to get us all to a uniform tax regime anytime soon. GST is divided into multiple forms (CGST, SGST and IGST) clearly make it similar to multiple taxation structure prevalent today, VAT, CST and Central/ Service Tax structure. What is new? Nothing!

GAAR: As I said, the government has been acting weak on this. It continues to be so and defers it again. While it isn’t wrong to defer it. But this time, they should backtrack or defer again. I hope that they will not in the next budget. We can only wait and watch.

Black Money: There are many steps proposed on reducing the Black Money problem. There are many penalties and disincentives for those who do not disclose their black money and who have undisclosed foreign assets. This is definitely as way forward. Implementation is what we want to see, as there were already penalties/ punishments for possessing black money!

Subsidies: It is good that there is no significant increase in the subsidy amounts this year’s announcement. However, there have been no steps announced to bring in rationality to the current subsidy structure. That is a disappointment!

Improve Savings: Announcement of special tax saving pension related savings (80CCD for INR 50,000 per month) is a good step towards inculcating a retirement planning approach to individual savings.

Capital Investment and Infrastructure: There is something to cheer on this front by committing huge investments in road, port and energy. Tax-free bonds to fund the infrastructure are coming back. This will also improve the nation’s savings rate.

Export encouragement: Not enough has been provided for the benefit of exporters. Very minimal additional support at this juncture is not encouraging, especially when we are having a gradually increasing import bill. As we can’t reduce dependence on the crude, focus should be on improving exports and reducing import of unnecessary goods (especially those that can be manufactured here). However, there isn’t much to cheer on this front in this budget.

Reduce import dependence: Import restrictions on Gold would partially reduce the import bill. However, the key problem of crude is yet to be resolved. Crude is at the lowest price so it would help us. However, it will not continue at this level forever!

Food and Agri Businesses: Good sums have been allocated towards improving Agriculture infrastructure (25,000 crs for rural infrastructure development fund). But key issues are availability of power, development of cold chain infrastructure. Whether these investments and investments in infrastructure translate into improvement in power and agri supply chain is to be seen.

Summarily it wasn’t a bad budget but at the same time it isn’t a very good one either! Obviously the budget couldn’t fulfil all the expectation. But there is only limited that any government can do. I think within that realm of thought, it looks that the government (Mr. Arun Jaitley) hasn’t disappointed many.