Saturday, December 21, 2024

Writing and me

have a deep passion for writing and actively explore various styles, ranging from creative and analytical to technical forms. Whether it’s crafting opinions and analyses on significant events or preparing project and design documents, I seize every opportunity to write whenever I can carve out a few minutes. This habit keeps me engaged, reflective, and intentional about the content I consume.

When I first began writing a couple of decades ago, I believed I could articulate my thoughts exactly as I imagined them. It didn’t take long to realize how much I had underestimated the complexity of translating thought into words.


As a high school student, I was introduced to some of the most beautiful poetry by great poets, with John Keats leaving the strongest impression on me. My first encounter with Keats was during my junior year, when we studied La Belle Dame sans Merci as part of our curriculum. I distinctly remember the summer mornings when my English teacher recited and explained the poem, unraveling its language and beauty. At the time, my language skills were far from polished, and I struggled to fully grasp the nuances of Keats’ words. Yet, I fell in love with his work, captivated by the depth and elegance of his poetry.


Accessing books wasn’t easy back then. Public libraries weren’t available, and most of my time was consumed by mastering high school math, physics, and chemistry. Even so, I found a poetic rhythm in solving complex math problems; they felt, in their own way, as enchanting as the verses of a poem.


A couple of years after graduating high school with excellent grades and acing the entrance exam, I embarked on a bachelor’s degree in engineering. During my first couple of years, though I devoted some attention to my studies, I often found myself lost in my thoughts. One major factor that shaped this state of mind was gaining access to a quality library.


My dad had arranged for a membership at the British Library, conveniently located on my route home from university. Some days, I would stop there, drawn to the modest section dedicated to poetry. It was during those visits that I discovered the works of several great poets, and my perspective on the world began to shift. The intricate beauty of language—how words could be woven together to create something imaginary yet deeply expressive—felt like pure magic to me. Poetry became my new math, a subject of endless fascination and exploration.


Oblivious to the world around me, I lost myself in a utopian dream, spending countless hours and days immersed in that imaginary realm. In reality, I lived like a robot, going through the motions, but in my mind’s universe, I was truly thriving. I lost all sense of time, often forgetting the hour or even the day, as I devoted myself to the solace of poetry.


After two years of being completely out of sync with my real world, I’ve come to realize the impact it has had on my future prospects. I always took pride in my ability to grasp ideas or concepts quickly—often on the first read or explanation. Such was my focus. Yet, during those two years, I failed to exercise that strength. I don’t regret the experience itself; I only regret my inability to balance it with the demands of my regular life. Following that realization, I discovered my love for writing code, particularly in the C programming language. I developed a deep fascination for automata theory and language compilers, both of which captivated me with their logic and elegance.


After graduating from the university, I was fortunate to join the research team at TCS, where I took on a pivotal role in maintaining a business language translation system that could generate error-free C++ code from structured language inputs. It was an incredibly rewarding experience that combined my passion for programming with the challenge of solving complex problems.


Drawn by the highly lucrative opportunities in the financial services industry, I transitioned from my fulfilling and intellectually rewarding role at TCS into banking, where I built a progressive career. My work primarily involved crafting comprehensive memos that detailed business, market, and financial analyses, along with well-reasoned justifications for lending or investment decisions.


Life came full circle when I transitioned back into technology, returning to writing code in C++ and eventually advancing to creating technical documents to present ideas for complex projects. This shift reignited my passion for programming and problem-solving while allowing me to combine technical expertise with clear communication.


Throughout my career, I’ve been fortunate to explore diverse avenues for expressing my thoughts and ideas through writing. Whether as an amateur poet capturing emotions, a programmer crafting efficient solutions in C/C++, or a professional drafting detailed memos to support critical financial decisions, writing has been a constant thread—one that has remained both a deeply fulfilling and integral part of my journey.

Monday, December 02, 2024

S&P 500 Vs VIX

S&P 500's Daily Returns Vs Daily VIX Change.

The daily changes have been plotted by sorting the data from the highest daily increase in VIX to highest daily fall. This plot clearly conveys a high negative correlation between the daily movements of these 2 indices -- as the Fear index (VIX) increases, the S&P 500 index falls.
 

Using VIX to predict S&P Volatility

By definition, VIX is an indication of expected market volatility in the next 30 days. Plotting standard deviation of the 30-day forward S&P standard deviation (Y) against VIX (X) on that day, indicates a decently correlated graph. Correlations between these were found to be 72%. VIX can't explain about a quarter of the volatility we observe in S&P over the next 30-days.
While VIX only indicates expected volatility and doesn't claim to predict S&P returns, I still went ahead and tried to plot 30-day forward S&P returns (Y) against VIX (X). As expected, I found that VIX can only explain about 5.8% of the 30-day forward returns of S&P. The plot indicates a poor correlation.
Analysis was based on daily closing values of VIX and S&P indices from 05-2004 to 11-2024.

Tuesday, November 19, 2024

Five Key Issues for the New Term of President-Elect Donald Trump

The achievements of Mr. Donald Trump, former President and now President-Elect of the United States, stand unparalleled in recent history. His return to power following a significant defeat in the previous election underscores his enduring ability to garner support across a broad spectrum of the American populace—cutting across lines of race, gender, political affiliations, and other divisions.

Both his popular vote and electoral college victories reflect a mandate that few can dispute. With such a strong endorsement, one can hope that his administration will focus on enacting transformative policies, revitalizing lawmaking, and restoring the country’s growth trajectory. In my opinion, there are five key areas that demand urgent attention: healthcare, immigration, taxation, innovation, and international trade.

1. Healthcare Reform

The U.S. healthcare system, while advanced, is deeply flawed. Despite its capability to save lives, it is one of the most inefficient systems globally, plagued by excessive bureaucracy, waste, and misuse of grants. These grants, intended to foster innovation, often fail to translate into meaningful healthcare outcomes for the taxpayers who fund them. The U.S. has historically been a leader in medical innovation, driven by science and rigorous decision-making. However, placing individuals who disregard scientific principles at the helm of healthcare only exacerbates inefficiency and disorder. Reforms must prioritize efficiency, accountability, and the promotion of tangible benefits for American citizens.

2. Immigration Policy

Immigration remains a broken facet of U.S. policy, repeatedly altered by political motives rather than comprehensive strategy. Legal immigration, which contributes to the economy and supports the tax base, should never be deprioritized in favor of leniency toward illegal immigration, which burdens public resources. Such policies contradict the foundational American principle of meritocracy. President Trump’s unconventional approach to governance uniquely positions him to address these challenges decisively and craft a fair, effective immigration system that aligns with national interests.

3. Taxation and Fiscal Responsibility

The inefficiencies in various government agencies and departments result in a significant waste of taxpayers’ money. Misallocated grants and unwarranted subsidies not only drain public funds but also encourage a culture of dependency and inefficiency. Addressing these issues would allow for a reduction in the tax burden on citizens and businesses, while simultaneously reducing national debt. A leaner, more efficient system can redirect resources toward productive uses and ensure that taxpayer contributions support meaningful and sustainable initiatives.

4. Promoting Innovation

Declining research and development (R&D) incentives since 2017 have dampened U.S. competitiveness in innovation. By reinstating robust incentives for R&D, the administration can reverse this trend and restore America’s position as a global leader in technological and scientific breakthroughs. This requires strategic policy adjustments to balance taxation and foster an environment where innovation can thrive without excessive bureaucratic hurdles.

5. International Trade Policy

President Trump’s firm stance on international trade has been a polarizing issue, but some of his measures are necessary to protect national interests. While outsourcing to low-cost countries may reduce consumer prices, it often comes at the cost of domestic employment opportunities. For outsourcing to benefit the economy, it must be accompanied by the creation of equivalent high-value jobs and accessible skill-transition pathways for displaced workers. Additionally, anti-dumping tariffs should be implemented judiciously to ensure fair trade practices without disproportionately harming domestic industries or consumers.

A Call for Strategic Leadership

With this new mandate, it is crucial for President-Elect Donald Trump to assemble a team of capable bureaucrats and advisors to address these pressing issues effectively. By focusing on these five areas, his administration can steer the country back toward a path of meritocracy, efficiency, and sustainable growth.

The next term offers an opportunity to enact policies that will not only address immediate challenges but also lay the foundation for a prosperous future.